The European
Union and the United Kingdom on Monday will begin the Brexit talks, where
Michel Barnier, the European Commission's Chief Negotiator and UK Brexit
Secretary David Davis will negotiate the terms of London’s withdrawal from the
bloc.
The talks
are due to be completed before March 30, 2019. However, they could be prolonged
if both London and Brussels agree to it.
The agenda
of the first round of talks is set to focus on "citizens’ rights, the
financial settlement, the Northern Irish border and other separation issues, as
part of the sequenced approach to the talks," according to the EU
Commission.
London
triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and officially launched the EU
withdrawal process by handing a formal letter to European Council President
Donald Tusk on March 29.
POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS
Two most
discussed options of how the withdrawal process will proceed are dubbed as
“hard” and “soft” Brexit.
The “hard
Brexit" means that the United Kingdom will lose access to the single EU
market, thus not being able to benefit from the EU “four freedoms”, namely the
free movement of goods, capital, services, and work force.
The scenario
has been initially proposed and promoted by the ruling Conservative party.
However, the Tories faced strong criticism and opposition from other parties.
In order to
overcome opposition in the parliament, UK Prime Minister and the Conservatives’
leader Theresa May, called the snap election to secure more seats, but as a
result, her party lost 12 instead, and the overall majority in the House of
Commons, a lower house of the UK parliament.
Given the
Conservatives’ diminished political influence, the scenario of the “soft
Brexit,” which implies the preservation of UK's membership in the single EU
market, or some other variant of compromise, is becoming likely.
WHAT TO EXPECT
In this
context, both the United Kingdom and the European Union, following a period of
disputes and mutual threats in regards to the terms of withdrawal, currently
seem to have a much softer and more consistent position on the outcome of the
Brexit negotiations.
“We are not
turning our backs on Europe. It is vital that the deal we strike allows both
the UK and the EU to thrive, as part of the new deep and special partnership we
want with our closest allies and friends,” the UK Brexit secretary said Sunday
in the light of the upcoming talks, as quoted in the UK government’s statement.
The European
Union would be "amicable and firm" with the United Kingdom in Brexit
talks, EU's Economic and Financial Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said
on Saturday.
"On
Brexit, we will be neither 'hard', nor 'soft', but amicable and firm,"
Moscovici told French weekly Journal du Dimanche.
The EU official added that
all the possible options regarding UK-EU relations post-Brexit were on the
table, including the one of "no deal."
TWO PHASES
OF TALKS
The European
Union's General Affairs Council envisioned a two-phased approach to the
negotiations in its Brexit talks guidelines, which have been approved in May.
According to
the guidelines, the first phase will focus
on two main issues, namely citizens’ rights and immediate effects of the
Brexit on them, as well as settlement of financial rights and obligations that
were undertaken by the United Kingdom as a EU member state.
Additionally,
the first phase should include discussion of the possible common approach
toward third country partners and international organizations.
Finalization
of the agreements on the future relations between Brussels and London is only
possible after the Brexit process is concluded, but discussion of those future
relations may begin during the second phase of the talks.
After both
phases of negotiations are completed, the European Union and the United Kingdom
will reach a withdrawal agreement, which will finalize Brexit.
However, the
European Union stressed that as long as the United Kingdom remained in the bloc
it was subject to all rights and obligations of a member state.
Comments
Post a Comment